Climate change: a survivors’ guide

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/oct/13/climate-change-survivors-guide-global

As warnings of global climate change grow ever more dire, John Vidal offers 10 tips on how to prepare for an apocalyptic future

 

• John Vidal The Guardian, Sunday 13 October 2013 13.15 EDT

Extremes of heat and rainfall are likely to make natural disasters commonplace in the future. Photograph: Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images

1 Stay cool, dry

Britain is expected to get more extremes of heat and rainfall, so prepare for more severe floods, longer droughts and more powerful storms. No one knows quite what the effect over time will be of a slowing Gulf stream, or the melting of arctic sea ice, but climate scientists confidently expect temperatures to rise up to 4C by 2100. That could mean big shifts in rainfall patterns and a more unpredictable climate. So clear your drains, fix your roof and move to Wales – or at least to somewhere with good water supply. The worst that could happen? Your grandchildren will inherit inexorably rising temperatures that render much of the Earth uninhabitable. Their problem? Yes, but yours, too.

2 Move

Sea levels are rising gradually and by the end of the century could be nearly 2ft higher than they are today. So don’t pass on that beach hut to your children, and expect to lose acres if you live near the coast in East Anglia and other low lying areas. You won’t have to head for the hills for many years, but prepare to view the seaside from behind higher walls and from the dykes that will be needed to protect many coastal towns. By 2100 the map of Britain will be smaller and many cities are likely to be besieged by climate “refugees” arriving from low-lying areas such as Norfolk.

3 Adapt

Climate change is going to be very, very expensive, and the poor, the old and the vulnerable will be the most affected because they are least likely to have the money to move house or adapt. Economists such as Lord Stern and Jim Yong Kim, the new president of the World Bank, expect a 4C temperature rise to result in global economic meltdown – unless countries rapidly shift their economies towards less energy-intensive industries. Stern predicts that warming will knock at least 5% off GDP per year and Kim expects food shortages and conflicts over natural resources and water. Abnormal events such as Hurricane Sandy, which cost $65bn (£40bn) and the 2011-12 US drought, which cost $35bn (£21bn) may be just foretasters of the price to be paid. On the other hand, there’s serious money to be made adapting cities and industries to climate change and reducing emissions.

….(read more).

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

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Tropics to launch into uncharted climate territory by 2038

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/tropics-launch-uncharted-climate-territory-2038
Departure from historical climate variability projected to reach equatorial areas first

by Jessica Shugart
1:10pm, October 9, 2013

CLIMATE FIRSTS Tropical areas are projected to reach unprecedented temperature highs sooner than regions farther from the equator. Cities’ years of projected departure from historical climate variability are shown, ranging from 2020 (orange) to 2100 (blue).

C. Mora et al/Nature 2013

Global temperatures will take a permanent leap above historical bounds by 2047 if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, a simulation suggests. In the tropics, the projected liftoff will occur by 2038.

Climate data from 1860 to 2005 served as a reference for ranges of high and low surface temperatures around the planet. Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii at Manoa and colleagues averaged data from 39 climate simulations to project when temperatures would permanently depart from historical variability in different regions.

The model put the global average year of departure at 2047, but the date moves to 2069 if swift measures are taken to limit greenhouse gas releases, the researchers report in the Oct. 10 Nature.

Tropical regions will experience unprecedented temperatures nearly a decade earlier than higher latitudes. Temperatures fluctuate more widely near the poles, so these regions take longer and require more of a temperature boost to depart from historical ranges than tropical regions do.

Developing areas will generally hit the records earlier than wealthier ones. The researchers project that Manokwari, Indonesia, for example, will hit unprecedented highs in 2020, whereas New York City will hit them in 2047. Reykjavik, Iceland, won’t cross the threshold until 2066.

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120
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