Will GOP Threaten Shutdown Over Climate? – Ken Walsh’s Washington

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/Ken-Walshs-Washington/2013/10/08/will-gop-threaten-shutdown-over-climate

By Kenneth T. Walsh

October 8, 2013 RSS Feed Print

Regulations being prepared by President Obama’s administration, through the Environmental Protection Agency, to impose greenhouse gas controls for power plants will likely trigger widespread conservative outrage, a new study said.

Fighting regulations designed to limit climate change could be the next big cause among hard-line Republicans, according to a new study.

Widespread conservative outrage will likely be triggered by an assortment of regulations being prepared by President Obama’s administration, through the Environmental Protection Agency, to impose greenhouse gas controls for power plants, the study said. Some members of Congress and business interests argue that these regulations would badly hurt the coal industry and cost thousands of jobs.

The study by Democracy Corps, a Democrat-leaning research organization, found that, “Climate change is poised to replace health care reform among Republicans [as a central issue], with the very same dynamics already in evidence. But that also could further isolate and divide Republicans, too.”

[READ:
Washington’s Politics Turn Nasty, Profane]

“Evangelicals and tea party Republicans share and are consumed by skepticism about climate science – to the point where they mistrust scientists before they begin to speak,” the survey found. These constituencies, which dominate the GOP, strongly oppose “the big government and regulations that inevitably result from climate science,” Democracy Corps said.

“Tea party Republicans, in particular, are concerned that climate science is another way to force regulations on individuals and businesses,” the study added. “And they fear the subsequent costs – both to consumers and taxpayers.”

Republican moderates, however, have a different view. “Moderates are more apt to accept the science – and respond more positively to science in general,” the survey found.

[BROWSE:
Political Cartoons on Climate Change]

“… Although some are doubtful about climate change, they do not reject science offhand, but rather say they simply do not know enough to know who to believe. And while moderates reject high taxes and over-regulation, many do accept that climate is one area where government ought to do more.”

The survey was based on six focus groups conducted recently among Republicans in Raleigh, N.C.; Roanoke, Va.; and Colorado Springs, Colo.

In a related development, Reuters reports that Heather Zichal is stepping down as Obama’s chief energy and climate adviser to work in the private sector. No successor has been named but White House officials say there will be no reduction in Obama’s commitment to fighting climate change.

….(read more)

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Native tribes’ traditional knowledge can help US adapt to climate change

Abstract

This essay demonstrates how key concepts from ecology can be applied within historical analyses in order to gain insights regarding contemporary environmental change. We employ a coupled human and natural systems conceptual framework in a nascent historical analysis of rapid societal and environmental change in colonial New England, where European colonization led to stark and rapid transformations. Introduced diseases reduced indigenous communities to a fraction of their pre-contact levels.

European agriculture and associated pest species, deforestation and overharvest of ecologically influential species were among key aspects of the rapid changes in colonial New England. Cross-continental biotic introductions initiated reinforcing feedback loops that accelerated the transition of human and natural systems into novel states. Integrating colonial history and ecology can help identify important interactions between human and natural systems useful for contemporary societies adjusting to environmental change.

Nicholas James Reo, Angela K. Parker. Re-thinking colonialism to prepare for the impacts of rapid environmental change. Climatic Change, 2013; DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0783-7

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/131003162944.htm

Oct. 3, 2013 — New England’s Native tribes, whose sustainable ways of farming, forestry, hunting and land and water management were devastated by European colonists four centuries ago, can help modern America adapt to climate change.

That’s the conclusion of more than 50 researchers at Dartmouth and elsewhere in a special issue of the journal Climatic Change. It is the first time a peer-reviewed journal has focused exclusively on climate change’s impacts on U.S. tribes and how they are responding to the changing environments. Dartmouth also will host an Indigenous Peoples Climate Change Working Group meeting Nov. 4- 5.

The special issue, which includes 13 articles, concludes that tribes’ traditional ecological knowledge can play a key role in developing scientific solutions to adapt to the impacts. “The partnerships between tribal peoples and their non-tribal research allies give us a model for responsible and respectful international collaboration,” the authors say.

…(read more).

Dartmouth College (2013, October 3). Native tribes’ traditional knowledge can help US adapt to climate change. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 8, 2013, from http://www.sciencedaily.com­ /releases/2013/10/131003162944.htm

See related:

• Chistopher Parsons, The Birth of Boston, September 15, 2020
  
• Christopher Parsons
• Changes in the Land: Indians, Colonists, and the Ecology of New England: William Cronon, John Demos
• A Not-So-New World: Empire and Environment in French Colonial North America (Early American Studies): Christopher M. Parsons
• Commerce and Cartography on Colonial Frontiers: Reexamining American & African History ~ through Maps
• The Indian World of George Washington: The First President, the First Americans, and the Birth of the Nation
• Colin G Calloway, The Indian World of George Washington

Environmental Ethics
Environmental Justice
Global Climate Change

.* * *

IEA – World Energy Outlook 2013

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

‌To be released on 12 November‌‌

In a world where big differences in regional energy prices impact competitiveness, who are the potential winners and losers?

Huge volumes of oil are needed to meet growing demand and offset declines in existing fields. Where will it all come from?

What could trigger a rapid convergence in natural gas prices between Asia, Europe and North America, and how would it affect energy markets?

Is the growth in renewable energy self-sustaining and is it sufficient to put us on track to meet global climate goals?

How much progress is being made in phasing out fossil-fuel subsidies and expanding access to modern energy services to the world’s poor?

The answers to these and many other questions are found in WEO-2013, which covers the prospects for all energy sources, regions and sectors to 2035. Oil is analysed in-depth: resources, production, demand, refining and international trade. Energy efficiency – a major factor in the global energy balance – is treated in much the same way as conventional fuels: Its prospects and contribution are presented in a dedicated chapter. And the report examines the outlook for Brazil’s energy sector in detail and the implications for the global energy landscape.

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Securing our pensions: The close interdependence of investments and the new world order

http://www.good-measures.eu/uploads/30-document.pdf

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Canada’s Carbon Liabilities: The Implications of Stranded Fossil Fuel Assets f or Financial Markets and Pension Funds / Marc Lee and Brock Ellis

http://d7.policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/National%20Office,%20BC%20Office/2013/03/Canadas%20Carbon%20Liabilities.pdf
Mounting evidence of climate change impacts worldwide will inevitably
lead to a new global consensus on climate action. Based on recent research,
between two-thirds and four-fifths of known fossil fuel reserves have
been deemed to be unburnable carbon — that cannot safely be combusted.
This is of profound importance to Canada, a nation making fossil fuel
development and expansion the centrepiece of its industrial strategy. This
study looks at the implications of unburnable carbon for the Canadian fossil
fuel industry and in particular for financial markets and pension funds.
We argue that Canada is experiencing a carbon bubble that must be strategically
deflated in the move to a clean energy economy.

Doing the Math
A carbon budget is the maximum amount of CO2 that can be emitted in the
future, based on scientifically-estimated probabilities of staying below 2°C
of global warming, above which would lead to catastrophic or “runaway”
climate change beyond humanity’s capacity to manage. The world’s carbon
budget is now approximately 500 billion tonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide, an
amount that would provide an 80% chance at staying under 2°C.
Canada’s share of that global carbon budget would be just under 9 Gt
based on its share of world GDP, and 2.4 Gt based on share of world population.
An internationally negotiated carbon budget for Canada could go
up depending on export arrangements with other countries, or down if larger
historical emissions mean disproportionate reductions from rich countries.
A plausible carbon budget for Canada would almost certainly fall between
2 and 20 Gt.
Canada’s reserves of fossil fuels are significantly larger than Canada’s
fair share of a global carbon budget:
• Canada’s proven reserves of oil, bitumen, gas and coal are equivalent
to 91 Gt of CO2, or 18% of the global carbon budget.
• Adding in probable reserves boosts this figure to 174 Gt, or 35% of
the global carbon budget.
• A final, more speculative category including all possible reserves is
1,192 Gt — more than double the world’s carbon budget.
This means that business as usual for the fossil fuel industry is incompatible
with action to address climate change that keeps global temperature
increase to 2°C or less. Even at the high end of a 20 Gt carbon budget, this
would imply that 78% of Canada’s proven reserves, and 89% of proven-plusprobable
reserves, would need to remain underground.

Carbon Liabilities, Stranded Assets
The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) is highly weighted towards the fossil fuel
sector. At the end of 2011, the TSX had 405 listed oil and gas companies with
a total market capitalization of over $379 billion. When coal producers are
added this number rises further.

To assess the implications of Canada’s carbon bubble, we developed a
database of 114 fossil fuel companies operating in Canada — 103 listed on
the TSX (assets greater than $70M for oil and gas, and $50M for coal), and 11
foreign-owned subsidiaries. For each we compiled financial data on revenue,
assets and market capitalization. Then we added data on fossil fuel reserves
(proven and probable), which we converted into potential CO2 emissions.
We develop an estimated range of their carbon liabilities by applying a carbon
price, representing the estimated damages from emitting a tonne of carbon
(known as the social cost of carbon, or SCC, based on recent literature).

….(read more).

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets

http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publication/unburnable-carbon-2013-wasted-capital-and-stranded-assets/

http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/PB-unburnable-carbon-2013-wasted-capital-stranded-assets.pdf

and

• Study Details Fossil Fuels that Must Be Left Untouched to Avoid Devastating Global Warming

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Carbon Bubble | Carbon Tracker Initiative

http://www.carbontracker.org/carbonbubble

Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?

http://www.carbontracker.org/linkfileshare/Unburnable-Carbon-Full-rev2.pdf

This award-winning analysis by Carbon Tracker discovers that:

• Already in 2011, the world has used over a third of its 50-year carbon budget of 886GtCO2, leaving 565GtCO2
• All of the proven reserves owned by private and public companies and governments are equivalent to 2,795 GtCO2
• Fossil fuel reserves owned by the top 100 listed coal and top 100 listed oil and gas companies represent total emissions of 745GtCO2
• Only 20% of the total reserves can be burned unabated, leaving up to 80% of assets technically unburnable

(click image for larger version of map)

Distribution of reserves across exchanges

By allocating reserves to exchanges, it is possible to build up a picture of where reserves are listed. The map shows how the listings of coal, oil and gas reserves are distributed, indicating that capital markets are supporting the continued exploitation of fossil fuel reserves around the world.

Focus on the UK:

The analysis shows that London currently has 105.5 GtCO2 of fossil fuel reserves listed on its exchange, over ten times the UK’s domestic carbon budget for 2011 to 2050, of around 10 GtCO2. This amount is only growing with the addition of companies such as Glencore, Vallar and Vallares, and the predominance of mining companies amongst new listings – 70% in the first half of 2011.

Relevance for investors

Asset owners typically invest large amounts in passive funds which track the market, or active funds which are benchmarked against market indices. This means many investors are backing huge fossil fuel reserves purely as a result of the structure of the financial products they invest in. The continued focus on short term returns perpetuates the status quo .

Regulation needed

Carbon Tracker argues that the new Financial Policy Committee, set up to monitor risks and bubbles in the financial system, must urgently address the “carbon bubble” and ensure regulators require greater disclose on reserves and carbon emission in order to assess this material risk to financial stability. Carbon Tracker recommends that this market failure is also considered by the Kay review into the structure of Equity markets to deliver a more long-term, transparent system.

….(read more).

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

HSBC: Oil & carbon revisited: Value at risk from ‘‘unburnable’’ reserves

http://gofossilfree.org/files/2013/02/HSBCOilJan13.pdf

Oil & Gas/Climate Change, Europe

Oil & carbon revisited: Value at risk from ‘unburnable’ reserves
25 January 2013
Paul Spedding*
Analyst
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6787 paul.spedding
Kirtan Mehta*
Analyst
HSBC Bank plc
+91 80 3001 3779 kirtanmehta
Nick Robins*
Analyst
HSBC Bank plc
+44 20 7991 6779 nick.robins
View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com

Unburnable carbon

Our first note on carbon and the oil sector (‘Oil and
carbon. Counting the cost’, 23 September 2008)
looked at the potential cost of carbon pricing for the
industry. This note revisits this theme but looks at
the risk to the oil sector were carbon policy to lead to
lower demand for oil and slower growth in demand
for gas.

The IEA, based on research by Meinhausen et al
(Nature, 40 April 2009), estimated that to have a
50% chance of limiting the rise in global
temperature to 2ºC , the world can only emit
1,440Gt over the first half of the current century.
With around 400 Gt emitted from fossil fuels and
other sources so far this century, only around 1,000
Gt or a third of current proven reserves can be
‘burned’.

This would mean that a material
proportion of the world’s coal, oil and gas reserves
may be ‘unburnable’ over the next 40 years.
In the IEA’s ‘450 ppm’ scenario (‘450’), which
limits global warming to 2C, the aim is to reduce
carbon concentrations to 450 ppm, the level it
believes is necessary to have a 50% chance of
limiting the long-term temperature rise to 2ºC. It
assumes that between 2010 and 2035, coal
consumption falls by 30% and oil by 12%.
IEA 450 scenario fossil fuel demand (CAGR, %)

Looking at how the carbon in proven reserves is
split between fossil fuels, it is clear that oil can
only play a modest role in reducing emissions.
Embedded ‘carbon’ in coal is three times the
amount bound in oil and over four times that in
gas (see “Coal and Carbon, Stranded assets;
assessing the risk”, 21 June 2012, for our analysis
of the risks to coal).

It is clear that reduced usage of coal is the key to
stabilising and eventually reducing annual carbon
emissions. However, we believe that reductions in
oil demand, although smaller, can be delivered
more quickly than coal through improvements in
transport fuel efficiency.

See also: “Coal and Carbon, Stranded assets;
assessing the risk”, 21 June 2012.

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Why can’t we quit fossil fuels?

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/apr/17/why-cant-we-give-up-fossil-fuels

Despite the clean technology of the past decade, we continue to extract and burn fossil fuels more than ever before

Duncan Clark   The Guardian,  Wednesday 17 April 2013 12.49 EDT

A coal-fired power station in Gelsenkirchen, Germany dwarfs a wind turbine in the foreground. Photograph: Image Broker/Rex Features

We have far more oil, coal and gas than we can safely burn. For all the millions of words written about climate change, the challenge really comes down to this: fuel is enormously useful, massively valuable and hugely important geopolitically, but tackling global warming means leaving most of it in the ground – by choice. Although we often hear more about green technology, consumption levels or population growth, leaving fuel in the ground is the crux of the issue. After all, the climate doesn’t know or care how much renewable or nuclear energy we’ve got, how efficient our cars and homes are, how many people there are, or even how we run the economy. It only cares how much globe-warming pollution we emit – and that may be curiously immune to the measures we usually assume will help.

The Burning Question: We can’t burn half the world’s oil, coal and gas. So how do we quit?
by Duncan Clark, Mike Berners-Lee

1. 

There are three facts that tell you all you really need to know about climate science and politics. One: for all the uncertainty about the detail, every science academy in the world accepts the mainstream view of man-made global warming. Two: virtually every government, recognising the profound danger of tampering with the climate that allowed human society to thrive, has agreed the world must limit the global temperature increase to 2C – a level which isn’t by any means “safe” but may be enough to avoid the worst impacts. Three: the amount of warming we will experience goes up roughly in proportion to the total amount of carbon that global society emits – cumulatively.

Here is the rub. Even if we gave up on all the obscure and unconventional fossil fuel resources that companies are spending billions trying to access and just burned the “proven” oil, coal and gas reserves – the ones that are already economically viable – we would emit almost 3tn tonnes of carbon dioxide. No one can say exactly how much warming that would cause, but it is overwhelmingly likely that we would shoot well past 2C and towards 3C or even 4C of warming.

Four degrees might not sound much but at the planetary level it is. It is about the same as the temperature increase observed since the ice age’s “last glacial maximum”, when much of the northern hemisphere was trapped under ice as thick as the world’s five tallest skyscrapers stacked on top of each other. It is impossible to say what changes another three or four degrees would bring, but the impacts could very plausibly include a collapse in global food production, catastrophic droughts and floods, heatwaves and the beginning of ice-sheet melt that could eventually raise the sea level enough to wipe out many of the world’s great cities.

….(read more)

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Lord Stern: It would be absurd to underestimate climate change risks

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/24/lord-stern-climate-change-risks

The IPCC report shows the risks are ‘immense’, and it would be unscientific to ignore the evidence, says the economist

• theguardian.com, Tuesday 24 September 2013 10.32 EDT

Lord Nicholas Stern: ‘It would be extraordinary and unscientific to argue on the basis of 200 years of evidence that you’re confident that the risks are small.’ Photograph: Sarah Lee for the Guardian

It would be “absurd” to claim the risks of climate change are small, economic expert Lord Stern said before the publication of a key scientific report on global warming.

The latest international assessment of climate science makes it crystal clear the risks are “immense”, and it would be extraordinary and unscientific to ignore the evidence and argue for a delay in addressing the problem, he said.

The former World Bank chief economist and author of the key 2006 Stern review on the economics of climate change also warned that scientific projections and economic predictions were underestimating the risks of global warming.

While scientists recognised some potential impacts such as the melting of permafrost, which would release powerful greenhouse gas methane, could be very damaging, they were left out of models because they were hard to quantify.

Many economic models, meanwhile, “grossly underestimate the risks” because they assumed that growth will continue and the costs of climate change will be relatively small, he said.

“Both assumptions trivialise the problem and are untenable given the kind of change that could take place,” Lord Stern warned.

Temperature rises of 3C or 4C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 would put humans “way outside” the conditions in which civilisation developed, and could cause major disruptions that would damage growth.

Hundreds of millions or even billions of people could be forced to move from where they lived, causing conflict, there could be large-scale destruction of infrastructure and important services provided by nature could collapse, he warned.

His comments come as scientists and government officials meet in Sweden to finalise the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report assessing the evidence for climate change and its causes, to be published on Friday.

“The IPCC report makes crystal clear that the risks from climate change are immense,” Stern said.

….(read more).

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environmental Justice http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre145
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120