Paul Beckwith
Published on Jan 10, 2020
In my previous two videos I discussed how the reflectivity of the Arctic region reduced from 52% to 48% between 1979 and 2011, with global average warning 0.21 W/m2 (1/4 that of CO2). Now I explain the newest science from 2019 on how a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet 0.71 W/m2 with expected cloud invariance (or 2.24 W/m2 with clear skies, or 0.37 W/m2 if overcast). This equals 1 trillion tons of CO2 or 25 years of warming. i.e. global food shortages.
In this video I continue to explain the latest cutting edge science from late 2019 on how a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet 0.71 W/m2 if cloud behaviour stays similar to now. If clouds behave differently, one extreme case would have heat forcing of 2.24 W/m2 with completely clear skies; the other extreme case would be 0.37 W/m2 if the Arctic skies were all overcast (over 95% cloud coverage; similar thickness (optical depth) to now. The middle case (most likely?!) with 0.71 W/m2 is equivalent to 1 trillion tons of CO2 or 25 years of warming. i.e. global food shortages.
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