Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone

Abstract

The development of successful coastal adaptation strategies for both the built and natural environments requires combining scenarios of climate change and socio-economic conditions, and risk assessment. Such planning needs to consider the adaptation costs and residual damages over time that may occur given a range of possible storm conditions for any given sea level rise scenario. Using the metric of the expected value of annual adaptation costs and residual damages, or another metric that can be related to the elevation of flooding, a simplified method to carry this out is presented. The approach relies upon developing damage-flooding depth probability exceedance curves for various scenarios over a given planning period and determining the areas under the curves. While the approach does have limitations, it is less complex to implement than using Monte Carlo simulation approaches and may be more intuitive to decision makers. A case study in Maine, USA is carried out to illustrate the method.

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Global Climate Change
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Dark Snow Project

About the August, 2014 dark Greenland photos

Posted on October 29, 2014 by Jason Box
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Photos and video I took during an August 2014 south Greenland maintenance tour of promice.org climate stations and an extreme ice survey time lapse camera went viral, featuring a surprisingly (to me and others) dark surface of Greenland ice.

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Global Climate Change
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See & Learn Why 35,000 Walrus’ Are Gathering

The Big Picture RT
Published on Oct 2, 2014
See & Learn Why 35,000 Walrus’ Are Gathering

Global Climate Change
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The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic

By RICHARD A. MULLER JULY 28, 2012

Berkeley, Calif.

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.

My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and objective analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, which I founded with my daughter Elizabeth. Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years. Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases.

• ‘Converted’ Skeptic: Humans Driving Recent Warming JULY 29, 2012

Related in Opinion

These findings are stronger than those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations group that defines the scientific and diplomatic consensus on global warming. In its 2007 report, the I.P.C.C. concluded only that most of the warming of the prior 50 years could be attributed to humans. It was possible, according to the I.P.C.C. consensus statement, that the warming before 1956 could be because of changes in solar activity, and that even a substantial part of the more recent warming could be natural.

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Global Climate Change
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