Daily Archives: July 25, 2013

Richard Wolff: Detroit a “Spectacular Failure” of System that Redistributes Pay From Bottom to Top

E120, e145,

Voters think Republican climate dissenters ‘crazy’, bipartisan poll finds

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/25/us-politics-climate-change-scepticism

Results show risks that deniers in Congress pose to GOP as majority of younger constituents back Obama’s carbon plans

John Boehner, left, has described Barack Obama’s climate plan as ‘crazy’ but voters in a bipartisan poll have dealt out the same assessment of climate change dissenters, who comprise the majority of Republicans in Congress according to other research. Photograph: Jason Reed/Reuters

Republicans in Congress who reject the science behind climate change could soon be reduced to political fossils, with new polling on Wednesday suggesting three-quarters of young voters find such views “ignorant, out of touch or crazy”.

The bipartisan poll conducted for the League of Conservation Voters found solid 80% support among under-35 voters for Barack Obama’s climate change plan – and majority support even among those who oppose the president.

On the flip side the poll found three-quarters of voters, or 73%, would oppose members of Congress who stood in the way of Obama’s climate action plan.

The findings could prove awkward for Republicans in Congress who have adopted climate contrarianism as a defining feature.

Some 55% of Republicans in the House of Representatives and 65% of those in the Senate reject the science behind climate change or oppose action on climate change, according to an analysis by the Centre for American Progress.

….(read more).

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic

Reducing spread in climate model projections of
a September ice-free Arctic
Jiping Liua,1, Mirong Songb, Radley M. Hortonc, and Yongyun Hud
aDepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222; bState Key Laboratory of
Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,
China; cCenter for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025; and dDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School
of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Edited by Mark H. Thiemens, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, and approved June 14, 2013 (received for review November 13, 2012)
This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in
the 21st century using newly available simulations from the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find
that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free
Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with
different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions.
Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state
using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model
selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice
climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation
based on the strong and persistent relationship between present
and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches
show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both
approaches project that September ice extent will drop to ∼1.7
million km2 in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined
as 1 million km2) in 2054–2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario,
both approaches project a decrease to ∼1.7 million km2 in
the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent. (read more)

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Climate modelling: Ice-free Arctic predicted : Nature : Nature Publishing Group

http://www.nature.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/nature/journal/v499/n7459/full/499383c.html
Nature 499, 383 (25 July 2013) doi:10.1038/499383c Published online 24 July 2013

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Subject terms:

High levels of greenhouse-gas emissions could drive the annual sea-ice minimum in the Arctic, which occurs in September, to a level defined as ice-free by around mid-century.

A team led by Jiping Liu of the State University of New York in Albany assessed recent projections from 30 climate models on the basis of how well they represent current sea-ice levels. The researchers also looked at the projections of those models that best represented the evolution of sea ice from 1979–2011. Both analyses suggest that, compared with 2012 levels, sea ice could decline by some 50% to around 1.7 million square kilometres by the 2060s if emissions are moderate. A high-emissions scenario could push the annual minimum to less than 1 million square kilometres — the ice-free level — in the 2050s.

Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA http://dx.doi.org.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/10.1073/pnas.1219716110 (2013)

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120

Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss in 2011

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v478/n7370/full/nature10556.html

Nature 478, 469–475 (27 October 2011) doi:10.1038/nature10556 Received 03 May 2011 Accepted 07 September 2011 Published online 02 October 2011

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Abstract

Chemical ozone destruction occurs over both polar regions in local winter–spring. In the Antarctic, essentially complete removal of lower-stratospheric ozone currently results in an ozone hole every year, whereas in the Arctic, ozone loss is highly variable and has until now been much more limited. Here we demonstrate that chemical ozone destruction over the Arctic in early 2011 was—for the first time in the observational record—comparable to that in the Antarctic ozone hole. Unusually long-lasting cold conditions in the Arctic lower stratosphere led to persistent enhancement in ozone-destroying forms of chlorine and to unprecedented ozone loss, which exceeded 80 per cent over 18–20 kilometres altitude. Our results show that Arctic ozone holes are possible even with temperatures much milder than those in the Antarctic. We cannot at present predict when such severe Arctic ozone depletion may be matched or exceeded.

….(read more).

Global Climate Change http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre130
Environment Ethics http://courses.dce.harvard.edu/~envre120